Which insurance services revenue survives.
Two clocks run in this sector, and only one of them is about AI. Commission is a percentage of premium, so it moves with the market cycle without anyone renegotiating anything. Processing revenue moves with volume and with price. Most distribution platforms carry both, and a diligence that watches only one of the two clocks misses money in either direction.
Licensed judgement against codified processing.
Licensed, accountable, relationship-held work
Durability here needs licence and discretion and accountability. Durability here comes from license, discretion and accountability together.
Codified, high-volume work priced per unit
Automating a licensed process also moves professional liability, which is its own exposure.
Not every exposure is about AI.
Commission revenue is a share of premium, and premium moves with the market cycle rather than with how well the broker works. A brokerage can be excellent and lose revenue in a softening market. A large part of the exposure in this sector sits outside the customer relationship entirely.
In our illustrative insurance model.
In our illustrative insurance model, about a quarter of the exposure has nothing to do with AI. It sits on lines that look safe, and an assessment that looked only at automation could easily miss it.
The full paper, with the sector detail, is shared on request.